Sunday, May 6, 2012

Hollande projected winner

Official estimates, based on early returns, project Hollande elected president of the republic, 52% -48%, over incumbent president Sarkozy, with an estimated 80% turnout.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Le Pen voters in broad context

Arun Kapil, an American-born political scientist who researches French politics from France, has posted one of the broadest, and most interesting, analyses I've read of the sizeable number of voters who supported Marine Le Pen, last Sunday -- especially of those who are not active members of the National Front and who had not voted for that party's candidate in past elections.

He develops a number of points about the demographic changes, cultural and media changes, and changes in housing patterns and human geography that have been the basis of much research into the FN over the past 20 years.

Those who read French might also want to consult this analysis by French blogger Bernard Girard, who notes that Marine Le Pen's greatest support came from towns that do not have a local high school. He refers in the post to the work of French political scientist Nonna Meyer, whose publications including several in English, are listed here. Meyer has theorized that the most salient social characteristic of National Front voters is neither their social origins nor their economic status but their lack of a high school diploma.

(Update: Another French-language article that develops an aspect of Girard's thesis in a different direction, this article in Le Monde argues that support for the National Front has grown in rural areas precisely in response to the loss of public services in rural areas.)

Those interested in this topic might be interested to read Francoise Gaspard's A Small City in France about the victory of the National Front in 1995 municipal elections in the historically left-leaning city of Dreux, written by the loser of that mayoral election; as well as the broader study of the FN party itself (circa 1998) Politics on the Fringe by the political scientist Edward De Clair; and most recently published, a study of the history of the "radical right" in France as a response to "modernization", The Resurgence of the Radical Right in France by the political scientist, Gabrielle Goodliffe.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Presidential debate on line (maybe not)

The debate is scheduled to begin at noon PDT and may be visible here or here.

However, just minutes ago Le Monde posted a statement that it had been informed by the two privately owned television networks jointly producing the telecast asserting their ownership of the broadcast and rebroadcast rights -- and stating that any digital transmission or re-transmission would be forbidden.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Sarkozy compared to Petain

Two left-leaning French papers this week ran covers comparing Sarkozy to Petain, implying a threat to the Republic.